Our analysts take a look at the data from the 3Q25 earnings cycle and identify more interesting observations across European markets and sectors.
After each earnings cycle, we take some time to analyze the enormous amount of data we process with our Comparables feature - a powerful tool to view markets and sectors top down and in their entirety - to see what sector trends jump out at us across our current coverage universes.
Each quarter, we publish some of those insights in this blog as a representation of the depth of information available in our datasets, and the ease with which it can be analyzed from a top-down vantage.
Without further delay, here's our Quarterly Earnings Breakdown for 3Q25 - European Edition.
Most European chemicals businesses had a tough quarter, with declining profitability - average EBITDA declined -8% YoY, across our coverage universe. The weakest performance was from the basic chemicals producers such as LyondellBasell and Ineos, for whom subdued industry conditions, such as competitive pressures impacted margins adversely YoY. Indeed, Ineos leverage is now the highest it has been for a decade.
As investors concerns regarding the Company’s rising leverage grow, Ineos bonds have performed poorly over the past quarter.
However the agrochemical space was a notable positive exception to the general sector performance. After a weak prior year quarter, K+S benefited from continued upward trends in fertiliser pricing to show strong EBITDA improvement YoY.
Yara also saw improved performance, recording its best quarterly performance in nearly three years.
3Q25 also saw quite a wide dispersion across European retail sector performance. Isabel Marant was the standout performer (admittedly based on a very weak prior period result) based on strong LFL retail sales both in-store (+23%) and online (+44%) - underpinned by higher basket sizes yoy.
The Company’s bonds responded well to the performance, as can be seen in the sharp move upwards around its reporting date of 26 November. The 28s have nearly doubled in price since the lows back in April 2025.
At the other end of the scale, DIY retailers Maxeda and Hornbach saw falling profitability in 3Q, with EBITDA falling -10% and -9% YoY respectively. Maxeda revenue fell -4.3% YoY, particularly in Belgium, which the Company attributed to adverse weather conditions impacting seasonal product sales which were down -12% YoY.
Hornbach’s 3Q 25/26 LFL sales growth remained positive, though barely, due to the weak consumer environment in its major markets This prevented the Company from passing through cost inflation to its customers, undermining the Hornbach’s contraction in profitability
European airlines were another sector with a wide dispersion of outcomes over 3Q25.
Ryanair was the clear leader, as shorthaul leisure travel continued to grow (volumes +3% YoY), allowing the Company to charge 13% higher fares. Coupled with cost control, Ryanair has generated strong FCF over recent quarters, allowing the company to move to a robust net cash position.
In contrast, Lufthansa’s performance was slightly lower YoY, due to its exposure to higher-cost long-haul travel, such as North Atlantic routes where demand was softer.
Whilst revenue per available seat-km (RASK) was slightly lower YTD, Costs per seat-km (CASK) have risen through 2025.
Finnair meanwhile saw double-digit EBITDA decline YoY as it also continued to face both revenue and cost headwinds.
Despite these trends, Finnair was able to issue bonds in November - which despite a difficult first couple of weeks have now rallied above issue price into the new year.
Cross-market analysis like the above is easy with Cognitive Credit. Our Comparables feature offers a top-down view of all our fundamental data across our four coverage universes (European & US High Yield, and European & US Investment Grade), allowing you to find relative value opportunities across your markets, sectors and companies quickly and conveniently.
To see how our cross-market data and analytics could help your business, request your demo today.