Our analysts take a look at the data from the FY24 earnings cycle and identify more interesting observations across US markets and sectors.
After each earnings cycle, we take some time to analyze the enormous amount of data we process with our Comparables feature - a powerful tool to view markets and sectors top down and in their entirety - to see what sector trends jump out at us across our current coverage universes.
Each quarter, we publish some of those insights in this blog as a representation of the depth of information available in our datasets, and the ease with which it can be analyzed from a top-down vantage.
Without further delay, here's our Quarterly Earnings Breakdown for FY24 - US Edition.
This March capped off FY24 reporting for most US credit issuers. Price action was relatively muted through March, at least compared with the immense volatility that has characterized the month of April so far. Cognitive Credit data revealed some interesting fundamental themes beneath the surface, observable in the latest reporting period.
One pattern standing out was a top line surge in the Mortgage and Thrift Finance sector. This sector grew more than any other in US HY, with average revenues up 16.2% year over year.
Significant growth was seen across the industry’s sub verticals including mortgage underwriting, mortgage servicing, and subprime lenders.
United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM), the largest residential mortgage lender in the United States, saw its top line grow by over 60% in FY24. This increase was driven primarily by loan production income, up 53% on the year and 81% in the fourth quarter. This portion of the business grew off a low 2023 base and showcased a meaningful return in appetite for lending products.
Looking under the hood at United Wholesale, KPIs reported by the company’s mortgage business reveal that delinquency in its portfolio has nearly doubled over the last 12 quarters. The value has grown from 75bp to 137bp, reaching a local high. The company has also increased the portion of loans sold to other counterparties vs recent history. Could this indicate some concern about the environment it sees ahead?
At Mr. Cooper, the largest non-bank servicer of residential mortgage loans in the US, the top line grew 24% in FY24, and 55% in the fourth quarter. This was driven primarily by Total Servicing Revenues up 21% (FY24) and 58% (4Q24) respectively. While part of this appears related to intra-quarter timing of revenue recognition, quarterly service revenues have grown at an impressive 51% CAGR over the past 8 quarters. Might this indicate an uptick in the portion of loans which are stressed?
In the consumer lending space, goeasy, a Canadian subprime lender, posted record revenue driven by its Easy Financial segment. A barometer for consumer credit appetite, Easy Financial has grown at a 24.9% CAGR since 1Q23, indicating a steady ramp up in subprime credit. Could this be revealing a weakening consumer profile in North America?
Within IG Consumer Discretionary, the Consumer Durables & Apparel (L2) industry group showed a few signs of waning demand in FY24. In particular, the L4 sub-industries of Leisure Products, Footwear, and Appliances saw revenue declines of 7.2%, 8.5%, and 14.6% respectively. IG companies within these sub-industries appear in the chart below by revenue change.
Brunswick, which designs, manufactures, and markets recreational marine products, saw revenue drop by over 18% in FY24, with its US geography having shrunk by a CAGR of 22.5% since 1Q23. The company’s boat segment has been the primary driver of the decline, shrinking by 25% over that period.
Accordingly, EBITDA margins have deteriorated meaningfully from 17.3% to 9.2%, revealing potential vulnerability should things get worse in the economy.
The company still appears moderately leveraged at 3.0x net, but this has been climbing steadily over recent periods.
Spreads on the company’s BBB rated 2031 notes have increased from a benign ~110 to ~227 this year. Notably, Brunswick spreads had widened to ~160 (+50bp on the year) before the tariff related market selloff in April, before widening another ~60bp with the general market on recent headlines.
The largest maker of US home appliances, Whirlpool, posted a revenue decline of 18.7% in FY24. Its laundry and dishwashing business have shrunk at a CAGR of 8.8% and 19.9% respectively since the start of 2023. The company’s less discretionary refrigeration and cooking businesses outperformed on a relative basis, declining at low to mid single digit rates.
Against this decline in demand for its core products, the company has seen its fixed charge coverage ratio fall off steadily as cheap legacy debt rolls off and cash interest climbs higher.
Whirlpool’s 20-year bond spreads have increased by over 100bp year to date - nearly doubling. Notably, about 50bps of this move came before the wider market rut in April 2025.
The top 10 names in IG Healthcare space posted revenue gains of 9.3% on average, demonstrating strong demand. Performance was broad based across managed healthcare, distributors, and services.
Despite the top line durability, profitability was a different story for some operators. EBITDA at CVS and Humana declined nearly 25% each.
Zooming in on CVS, Gross profit has grown at a CAGR of 13.9% in the last eight quarters - seemingly indicating healthy fundamentals. However, the company’s Health Care Costs line item, which comprises the bulk of its operating expenses, has grown at 23.5% – well in excess of the rate of gross profit growth.
As a result, EBITDA margins are shrinking noticeably. Adjusted Net Leverage has increased by 1.4x turns since the start of 2023, with LTM figures ticking up steadily each quarter.
Despite these trends, CVS credit spreads have shown relative resilience so far this year.
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