Quarterly Earnings Breakdown: 1Q23

Quarterly Earnings Breakdown: 1Q23

In the first of our quarterly earnings breakdowns, our analysts take a look at the data from the latest earnings cycle and pick out the most interesting observations across markets and sectors. 

Throughout the earnings calendar, we process an enormous amount of data before publishing it to our application as ready-to-use credit models. As each quarterly cycle ends, we take some time to analyze the data in-application with our Comparables feature - a powerful tool to view markets and sectors top down and in their entirety - to see what sector trends jump out at us across our current coverage universe (European & US High Yield, as well as the BBB cohort of the  European Investment Grade universe).

Each quarter, we'll publish some of those insights in this blog as a representation of the depth of information available in our datasets, and the ease with which it can be analyzed from a top-down vantage.

So, without further delay, here's our first Quarterly Earnings Breakdown for 1Q23.

1Q23: By the numbers

Let’s start with a quick look at how much earnings data has been processed for 1Q23 to date:


1Q23 Breakdown | Cognitive Credit


1. Energy sector revenue growth despite lower oil prices

Amongst the best performing sectors in terms of revenue growth was the US HY Energy sector (+62% YoY). In our coverage universe, the highest revenue growth was from Northern Oil and Gas. Clicking through to the company Financials we can quickly observe why - the absence of the losses on hedging contracts that eroded Total Revenue in 1Q22 despite high oil prices. This was a theme broadly seen across the highest sector performers.


Cognitive Credit Application | Northern Oil and Gas | Income Statement


Visually this YoY % increase is easy to see via the Company’s Metrics section:


Chart | Northern Oil and Gas | Quarterly YoY Revenue Change


Indeed we can see from the KPI section that NOG’s realized prices were lower YoY, offsetting higher production somewhat. 


Cognitive Credit Application | Northern Oil and Gas | KPIs


2. Airlines still gaining altitude

The Airline rebound post-pandemic continues. Globally the sector experienced 1Q23 revenue growth of 60% YoY, led by regional European Airlines (see chart). Sector EBITDA more than doubled.


Chart | Transport Sector - Airlines | Revenue % YoY


The related Transportation Infrastructure segment also saw revenue growth, unsurprisingly led by Airports. 

Chart | Transport Sector - Airports | Revenue % YoY


3. Consumers squeezed as cost of living crisis bites supermarkets

Inflationary pressures are squeezing margins in the consumer sectors - Food Retailing sector revenue across our coverage grew 6.5% YoY, but as cost pressures were only partially passed on to consumers, EBITDA fell -17% YoY. Supermarket margin contraction over recent quarters can be clearly seen for several EUR HY sector constituents in the following chart (shown on an LTM basis to remove seasonality). 


Chart | Food Retail Sector | EBITDA Margin


4. No consumer squeeze evident in the broader leisure sector

In contrast, consumer pressures weren’t evident in our coverage of the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry, which saw median EBITDA growth of 18% in-line with revenue growth. Slicing this sector further  it can be seen that whilst the Restaurants and Casinos & Gaming space managed double digit growth for both revenue and EBITDA, the rebound of Cruise Line earnings led the way across the sector:


Chart | Leisure Sector | Revenue % YOY (in%)


5. Interest in our Real Estate Coverage inversely related to Real Estate Interest Coverage

Finally, in a rising interest rate environment, it's not hard to see why the Real Estate sector has become such an important focus for HY investors over the past year:


Chart | Sector | Interest Coverage (LTM. in x)


The convergence of the IC to less than 1x for the 10 worst performers serves as a poignant illustration of the challenges the sector currently faces:


Chart | Real Estate Sector | Interest Coverage (LTM)


Analyze the entire market, faster

Cross-market analysis like the above is easy with Cognitive Credit. Our Comparables feature offers a top-down view of all our fundamental data across our three coverage universes (European & US High Yield, and European Investment Grade), allowing you to find relative value opportunities across your markets, sectors and companies quickly and conveniently.

To see our Comparables feature in action, request your demo today.