Returning from his recent state visit to China, President Trump commented that the country was interested in placing a large jet order with Boeing, confirming the US aerospace leader’s ongoing stabilization. Following this development, we asked Cognitive Credit AI to summarize the company's recent financial history - as always - through the lens of a credit investor.
Boeing's credit journey since early 2023 has been one of the most dramatic in modern investment-grade aerospace history — a story of interrupted recovery, catastrophic operational setbacks, and a hard-fought stabilisation. The company entered 2023 on a tentative upswing from the 737 MAX crisis and COVID-era losses, only to be derailed by the January 2024 Alaska Airlines door plug incident and a 54-day machinists' strike in autumn 2024. A $24 billion equity raise in late 2024 provided the liquidity bridge needed to restart production, and 2025 saw genuine operational recovery — 600 commercial deliveries, the highest since 2018, and a return to positive operating cash flow.
As of 1Q26, Boeing is still free cash flow negative, carries ~$38bn in net debt, and faces a series of near-term execution risks that could curtail progress. The recovery is real but fragile.
Quarterly Timeline of Credit Profile Evolution
Phase 1 — Tentative Recovery (1Q23–FY23)
1Q23 — Green Shoots, But Still Loss-Making
Boeing reported revenue of $17.9bn (+28% YoY), driven by 130 commercial deliveries. Operating cash flow was ($0.3bn), a marked improvement from ($3.2bn) in 1Q22. Total gross debt declined to ~$55.4bn. Management reaffirmed FY23 guidance of $4.5–$6.5bn operating cash flow and $3.0–$5.0bn free cash flow. The company remained GAAP loss-making, with the balance sheet still deeply stressed by legacy MAX and COVID-era borrowings.
2Q23 — First Meaningful Cash Generation
Revenue of $19.8bn (+18% YoY) and 136 deliveries drove operating cash flow to $2.9bn and free cash flow to $2.6bn — the first meaningful quarterly cash generation in years. Total gross debt fell to $52.3bn. CEO Calhoun described the quarter as "solid" and highlighted production ramp progress on both the 737 (targeting 38/month) and 787 (targeting 4/month). This was the clearest inflection point of Phase 1 — demonstrating that the delivery engine could generate cash.
3Q23 — Stumble on Timing and Quality
Revenue of $18.1bn (+13% YoY) but only 105 deliveries — below expectations — and operating cash flow collapsed to near zero ($22mm) vs. $3.2bn in 3Q22. Management cited unfavourable receipt timing, absence of a prior-year tax refund, and early-stage quality challenges. Full-year guidance was maintained but the quarter exposed the fragility of the recovery. Backlog grew to $469bn (5,100+ aircraft), providing long-term visibility.
FY23 — Best Year Since Pre-MAX Crisis
Full-year revenue of $77.8bn (+17% YoY), operating cash flow of $6.0bn, and free cash flow of $4.4bn — the strongest performance since before the 737 MAX grounding. Total gross debt fell to $52.3bn from $57.0bn at end-2022, with $5.1bn in net debt repayments. The year ended with cautious optimism: production rates were rising, the backlog was growing, and deleveraging had begun.
Phase 2 — Tentative Recovery (1Q23–FY23):
KEY INFLECTION POINT — January 5, 2024: Alaska Airlines Door Plug Incident
A 737-9 mid-exit door plug detached mid-flight on an Alaska Airlines aircraft. The FAA grounded the 737-9 fleet, launched a comprehensive quality audit, and prohibited production rate increases until full compliance was demonstrated. Boeing deliberately slowed 737 production from 38/month to well below that level to remediate quality issues.
1Q24 — Severe Cash Burn Begins
Revenue fell 8% YoY to $16.6bn. Operating cash flow was ($3.4bn) vs. ($0.3bn) in 1Q23 — a $3.1bn deterioration. Free cash flow was ($3.9bn). Cash and marketable securities fell sharply to $7.5bn from $16.0bn at year-end 2023, partly reflecting $4.4bn in debt repayments. Total gross debt fell to $47.9bn. Abnormal production costs of $80m were recorded. Derived EBITDA was just $377m. CEO Calhoun stated the company would "take the time necessary to strengthen quality and safety management systems."
2Q24 — Debt Surge to Fund the Burn
Revenue of $16.9bn. Operating cash flow was ($3.9bn). Boeing issued $10bn in fixed-rate senior notes in May 2024 to shore up liquidity, pushing total gross debt to $57.9bn — the highest level in the period under review. H1 2024 free cash flow was ($8.3bn). The FAA prohibited production rate increases pending quality compliance. Derived EBITDA was ($636m) — the first negative EBITDA quarter in the review period. The 777X certification timeline slipped, with first delivery pushed to 2025.
KEY INFLECTION POINT — September 13, 2024: IAM Machinists' Strike
Over 30,000 IAM 751 members walked out, halting production of the 737, 767, 777, and 777X in Washington state. This compounded the already severe quality-driven production slowdown.
3Q24 — Deepest Trough
Revenue of $17.8bn (-2% YoY). Operating cash flow was ($1.3bn) for the quarter; nine-month operating cash flow was ($8.6bn) vs. +$2.6bn in 9M23. Total gross debt rose to $57.7bn. Derived EBITDA was ($5,303m) — the worst quarter in the review period, driven by $3.0bn in 777X/767 reach-forward loss charges. Net loss attributable to shareholders was ($6.2bn). CEO Kelly Ortberg (who replaced Calhoun in August 2024) acknowledged it "will take time to return Boeing to its former legacy."
This extract is from our credit review of Boeing.
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Disclaimer: This review was produced by Cognitive Credit AI and is based on Rackspace Technology’s official 1Q26 reporting and Cognitive Credit's curated data. It is intended for institutional credit analysis purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.